面向随时间治疗效应估计的重叠加权正交元学习器

ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment sequences, which creates severe overlap problems. Existing meta-learners for the time-varying setting typically assume adequate treatment overlap, and thus suffer from exploding estimation variance when the overlap is low. To address this problem, we introduce a novel overlap-weighted orthogonal WO meta-learner for estimating HTEs that targets regions in the observed data with high probability of receiving the interventional treatment sequences.