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ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to give to a cancer patient). However, predicting potential out- comes over long horizons is notoriously difficult. Existing methods that break the curse of the horizon typically lack strong theoretical guarantees such as orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency. In this paper, we revisit the problem of predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making (i.e., estimating Q-functions in Markov decision processes with observational data) through a causal inference lens.

ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment sequences, which creates severe overlap problems. Existing meta-learners for the time-varying setting typically assume adequate treatment overlap, and thus suffer from exploding estimation variance when the overlap is low. To address this problem, we introduce a novel overlap-weighted orthogonal WO meta-learner for estimating HTEs that targets regions in the observed data with high probability of receiving the interventional treatment sequences.