论文ICLR 2026 Poster2026 年trustworthy medical AI 面向一般右删失数据的保形化生存反事实预测
ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. This paper aims to develop a lower prediction bound (LPB) for survival time across different treatments in the general right-censored setting. Although previous methods have utilized conformal prediction to construct the LPB, their resulting prediction sets provide only probably approximately correct (PAC)–type miscoverage guarantees rather than exact ones. To address this problem, we propose a new calibration procedure under the potential outcome framework. Under the strong ignorability assumption, we propose a reweighting scheme that can transform the problem into a weighted conformal inference problem, allowing an LPB to be obtained via quantile regression with an exact miscoverage guarantee.
论文ICLR 2026 Poster2026 年clinical prediction SurvHTE-Bench:生存分析中异质治疗效应估计基准
ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique challenges for HTE estimation due to censoring, unobserved counterfactuals, and complex identification assumptions. Despite recent advances, from causal survival forests to survival meta-learners and outcome imputation approaches, evaluation practices remain fragmented and inconsistent. We introduce SurvHTE‐Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for HTE estimation with censored outcomes. The benchmark spans (i) a modular suite of synthetic datasets with known ground truth, systematically varying causal assumptions and survival dynamics, (ii) semi-synthetic datasets that pair real-world covariates with simulated treatments and outcomes, and (iii) real-world datasets from a twin study (with known ground truth) and from an HIV clinical trial.
论文ICLR 2026 Poster2026 年trustworthy medical AI 面向多模态癌症生存分析的结构化预后事件建模
ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. The integration of histology images and gene profiles has shown great promise for improving survival prediction in cancer. However, current approaches often struggle to model intra- and inter-modal interactions efficiently and effectively due to the high dimensionality and complexity of the inputs. A major challenge is capturing critical prognostic events that, though few, underlie the complexity of the observed inputs and largely determine patient outcomes. These events---manifested as high-level structural signals such as spatial histologic patterns or pathway co-activations---are typically sparse, patient-specific, and unannotated, making them inherently difficult to uncover.
论文ICLR 2026 Poster2026 年clinical prediction 通过概念型多模态协同适配桥接放射学与病理学基础模型
ICLR 2026 Poster accepted paper at ICLR 2026. Pretrained medical foundation models (FMs) have shown strong generalization across diverse imaging tasks, such as disease classification in radiology and tumor grading in histopathology. While recent advances in parameter-efficient finetuning have enabled effective adaptation of FMs to downstream tasks, these approaches are typically designed for a single modality. In contrast, many clinical workflows rely on joint diagnosis from heterogeneous domains, such as radiology and pathology, where fully leveraging the representation capacity of multiple FMs remains an open challenge. To address this gap, we propose Concept Tuning and Fusing (CTF), a parameter-efficient framework that uses clinically grounded concepts as a shared semantic interface to enable cross-modal co-adaptation before fusion. Code/project link: https://github.com/HKU-MedAI/CTF; https://github.com/neuronflow/BraTS-Toolkit